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Hit My Retirement Goal, However Here's The Story About 200 Days Moving Average

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    Hit My Retirement Goal, However Here's The Story About 200 Days Moving Average

    So I finally hit my retirement milestone from my stocks. If I were to sell all my stocks, I can most likely retire just fine, however what should one do if you don't want to sell? The best metric to use is the 200 days moving average.

    There are a lot of technical trading when it comes to stocks. The price does not go up and down as randomly as you may think due to algorithm trading which follows a bunch of rules. Knowing the rules may help you gauge where your stocks are going.

    One of the strongest supports will be the 200 days moving average. This is the stock price your company will bounce off of incase of a market crash. Tsla, for example bounced off the 200 days moving average during the Covid crash. AMD did as well. So if one worries about market crash/correction/real money vs paper money..use the 200 days moving average to make this judgement. Short term correction or normal corrections bounce off 50 days MA, short term dips usually bounce of 20 ma.

    Of course this is not always the case, but it's a really good rule of thumb.

    So now I just need to wait for my 200 mma to be at 5 million before really talking to the boss man.
    Attached Files
    Last edited by 辛吉 ; 01-07-2021, 07:19 PM.

    #2
    Congrats, Singguy! Well done!

    When you say "bounce off of", does that mean it will be the lowest price a stock can fall to? That it cannot really fall below that price, no matter what?

    Is the reason you're waiting to talk to bossman is because you don't intend to sell now?

    Also, how do i get started with technical analysis? Any boins or sites you'd recommend? Dummies / simple, for the math-challenged type version preferred! Thanks!

    Comment


      #3
      Originally posted by 饭桶 查看帖子
      Congrats, Singguy! Well done!

      When you say "bounce off of", does that mean it will be the lowest price a stock can fall to? That it cannot really fall below that price, no matter what?

      Is the reason you're waiting to talk to bossman is because you don't intend to sell now?

      Also, how do i get started with technical analysis? Any boins or sites you'd recommend? Dummies / simple, for the math-challenged type version preferred! Thanks!
      It means that there's a HUGE buy wall at the 200 MA. I am only referring to macro crisis. If the CEO decides to cook the books and embezzle money then the lowest the stock can go is always zero. But like housing bubble crisis, or 911..the company that is still doing well will be dragged down, but will be dragged down to 200MA. The companies that are not doing well will be dragged down much further. This is generally talking about growth stocks. Dividend generating value stocks usually have hit their peak and they just need to maintain to produce dividends. Any change in sales will drag them down and technical analysis no longer apply. Technical analysis deals mostly with highly volatile stocks as that's where all the algro computers are concentrated in.

      "The stocks channel" on youtube is pretty good at explaining technical analysis daily.

      Also I have no intention of selling as the growth story for the companies I picked just got started.

      Comment


        #4
        Originally posted by 辛吉 查看帖子

        It means that there's a HUGE buy wall at the 200 MA. I am only referring to macro crisis. If the CEO decides to cook the books and embezzle money then the lowest the stock can go is always zero. But like housing bubble crisis, or 911..the company that is still doing well will be dragged down, but will be dragged down to 200MA. The companies that are not doing well will be dragged down much further. This is generally talking about growth stocks. Dividend generating value stocks usually have hit their peak and they just need to maintain to produce dividends. Any change in sales will drag them down and technical analysis no longer apply. Technical analysis deals mostly with highly volatile stocks as that's where all the algro computers are concentrated in.

        "The stocks channel" on youtube is pretty good at explaining technical analysis daily.

        Also I have no intention of selling as the growth story for the companies I picked just got started.
        Thanks. What about tax implications? Is the money is a retirement account or an investment account?

        Comment


          #5
          Originally posted by 饭桶 查看帖子

          Thanks. What about tax implications? Is the money is a retirement account or an investment account?
          This is my taxable account which means if I were to sell, it'll be nibbling and not just dumping the entire thing.

          Comment


            #6
            Congrats! This is a nice problem to have, but if you don't intend to sell any of your stocks anytime soon, how does it matter (re: telling the boss adieu) how much your 200MA is? It won't throw anything off, and you won't sell, so how do your plans make this your 'walking away money'?
            "Praestantia per minutus" ... "Acta non verba"

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              #7
              Nicely done 辛吉 .

              At these levels, are you adding to your positions or just holding?

              Comment


                #8
                Will you be ok if your stock portfolio drops 50%? If I were you, I would pick an asset allocation that suits your risk tolerance and rebalance to that. But I am an indexer, so I have no individual stocks at all.

                Comment


                  #9
                  Originally posted by corn18 查看帖子
                  Will you be ok if your stock portfolio drops 50%? If I were you, I would pick an asset allocation that suits your risk tolerance and rebalance to that. But I am an indexer, so I have no individual stocks at all.
                  It's kind of the point of this post. The 200 days moving average for this portfolio is 2.6 million. This means in my head, this is how much real money I have, so it already accounts for nearly a 50% drop. So either I retire now and pay my taxes at a higher rate of 23.8%, giving up shares I feel like it can still grow more, or mentally I really have 2.6 million dollars and wouldn't bother retiring until 200 ma is at 5 million.

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Originally posted by 辛吉 查看帖子

                    It's kind of the point of this post. The 200 days moving average for this portfolio is 2.6 million. This means in my head, this is how much real money I have, so it already accounts for nearly a 50% drop. So either I retire now and pay my taxes at a higher rate of 23.8%, giving up shares I feel like it can still grow more, or mentally I really have 2.6 million dollars and wouldn't bother retiring until 200 ma is at 5 million.
                    Do you own anything outside of this chart?

                    Comment


                      #11
                      Originally posted by corn18 查看帖子

                      Do you own anything outside of this chart?
                      600k of index funds in 401ks

                      Comment


                        #12
                        Originally posted by 辛吉 查看帖子

                        600k of index funds in 401ks
                        So you are 100% equities? How old are you?

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                          #13
                          Originally posted by corn18 查看帖子

                          So you are 100% equities? How old are you?
                          Just turned 38.

                          Comment


                            #14
                            Originally posted by 辛吉 查看帖子

                            Just turned 38.
                            Got it. Do you have an end state in mind for your portfolio? Asset Allocation (AA)? Or do you want to go into different stocks? As far as when to sell, based on all your postings, I think you would know better than most on here. You did a lot of research to buy them and made a metric f ton of money. If you think there is more growth, stick with them and don't sell. I thought you mentioned in another thread that you would sell when the YoY growth was less than 20%. That sounds good to me.

                            Comment


                              #15
                              Originally posted by corn18 查看帖子

                              Got it. Do you have an end state in mind for your portfolio? Asset Allocation (AA)? Or do you want to go into different stocks? As far as when to sell, based on all your postings, I think you would know better than most on here. You did a lot of research to buy them and made a metric f ton of money. If you think there is more growth, stick with them and don't sell. I thought you mentioned in another thread that you would sell when the YoY growth was less than 20%. That sounds good to me.
                              是 , hence this exercise. I don't want to touch my shares, but mentally I want to know how much real money I have vs money that can just disappear if there's a market crash. Having the 200 ma being the retirement number vs today's stock price gives a person exactly that.

                              Comment

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